Every Third Party Scenario Is Good For Democrats
You can worry about other stuff. But don't worry about this.
We are in the weird and interminable political interregnum when the presidential campaigns have begun but the first primary elections are still six months away and the media is straining to be in Full Campaign Action Mode even though not much is really happening. This is the time when Democrats, the party of self-loathing, sit and fret about all of the things that can go wrong.
Chief among the imaginary doom scenarios right now is the possibility of a third party candidate that siphons off just enough votes from Joe Biden to throw the election to, probably, Donald Trump. Today, I am writing to tell all of the Democrats with their guts in knots because of this possibility: relax. Even if there is a third party run, we have very little to worry about. Let’s consider the scenarios—none of which I would call probable, but all of which are within the realm of the possible.
TO WIT:
No Labels: This is the one most deeply entwined with the tedious DC establishment and which is currently getting the most press. No Labels is the Platonic ideal of the “neither left nor right, but actually right” crowd, a corporate front group trying to co-opt the more palatable real estate of “centrism.” They’ve recruited Joe Manchin to be their coy little flirt. Joe Manchin, for all of his carefully honed aw-shucks persona, is an asshole with a monstrous ego. He was the most powerful legislator in America during the Covid years. Playing footsie with a third party run is a way for him to extend his influence, to have the same Democrats who gritted their teeth and appeased him in 2020 grit their teeth once more and refrain from calling him a prick lest he be so offended that he decides to jump into the presidential race out of pure spite.
But Manchin can count votes, and I highly doubt he is spiteful enough to saddle himself with a hopeless spoiler campaign. Even if he does—spoiler for who? Democrats fear that Manchin would peel off votes from the “Republicans who don’t like Trump and therefore voted for Biden” demographic, robbing Biden of those precious conservative crossovers. But that ignores an even bigger demographic that would likely make up the bulk of any votes Manchin would get: “Republicans who don’t like Trump but voted for Trump anyhow.” The strength of party attachment today is so strong that there are many millions of Americans who were disgusted by Trump, but not disgusted enough to vote Democratic. This is Manchin’s natural base. Democrats (outside of West Virginia) fucking hate Joe Manchin! And besides, Joe Biden himself is a centrist Democrat! It don’t get more mainstream than Joe Biden. Manchin’s lane in the Democratic Party is infinitesimal. It is unthinkable that he would steal more votes from Joe Biden than from Trump. Forget that fucker.
RFK Jr.: Biden has no challenge from the left this time around. Bernie’s not running. AOC has endorsed Biden. And Cornel West is not going to do anything except to damage his own reputation. (I will be shocked if friends of Cornel West don’t talk him down from his campaign before it can do any numerical harm, not that he would find many votes anywhere.) Ron Klain, Biden’s former chief of staff, did enough outreach to the left wing of the party to see to it that working with Biden has been a more productive use of time for them than plotting to knock him off. The closest thing to a primary challenge Biden has is RFK Jr., who is a full-on conspiracy loon. Kennedy will not win any states, but it is conceivable that he could, with the backing of a few tech billionaires, push on with a third party challenge. So what? His base is crypto guys, along with a heavy dash of “onetime hippies who got sucked into QAnon.” If he were to get on a bunch of state ballots and attract a few million of those votes in November of 2024, whose votes would he be taking? To figure this out, ask yourself, “Are crypto guys and QAnon-adjacent crazies more Biden voters, or Trump voters?” Done. Go ahead and run, RFK, you fucking idiot. All you will do is help get Biden reelected and ensure that thousands of your supporters get easily preventable infectious diseases in the near future.
And the other third party candidate in waiting, of course, is
Donald Trump: Since Trump is leading all of the polls and none of the 784 other Republican candidates have shown any sign of threatening his lead, it has already become conventional wisdom that he’s a lock for the nomination. And sure, that’s the safest bet, for now. But in the event that the two-thirds of the Republican Party does manage to rally around another candidate and defeat Trump in the primaries, I find it very easy to imagine that he would just continue on with an independent bid for the White House. This scenario has not gotten a lot of discussion thus far, but it would make a lot of sense for Trump. If he is facing serious federal criminal charges, which he will be, his route out of trouble is to get elected president, and he will pursue it to the bitter end; his rabid base will always urge him on; he will have enough money and free media to compete with the major party candidates; and, most basic of all, he likes to run for president, because he likes the attention. The effect of a Trump third party run would be, obviously, to split the Republican vote and guarantee Joe Biden’s reelection. This fact, I think, makes the prospect even more appealing to Trump, because it puts him in the position of being a supercharged version of what Joe Manchin has been in the Senate: An individual who holds in his hand the power to fuck up all of the goals of an entire party, and who that entire party must therefore get on its knees and beg and flatter. Trump lives for that. He loves it! And do you think that Donald Trump, in his heart of hearts, gives a single damn if he torpedoes a Republican ticket that does not include him? No! He would happily blow up the party in revenge. In this sense, Republicans are very susceptible to being screwed by Donald Trump whether they nominate him or not.
None of this means that Biden is guaranteed to be reelected. It just means that third party candidates are not the thing to worry about. Instead, you can worry about all of the other infinite potentials of the chaotic and unknowable universe. Biden could drop dead, or Trump could drop dead. There could be wars, or terrorism, or natural disasters, or an economic crash, or another pandemic, or a weird gaffe where Biden slips and falls in a funny way and destroys his public persona. Lots of stuff. Only fools predict an election’s outcome more than a year in advance. But you might as well stress over the right things, not the wrong ones.
Also
I had a piece in The Guardian yesterday about the Hollywood strikes, and why their impact will resonate well beyond Hollywood. Go walk a picket line! Also, previously from me on the topic of third parties is something that I still believe: The third party should go in the middle. Put Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush in the same party and let the rest of us vote for socialism.
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I'm getting worried Hamilton - I'm agreeing with you too often! Excellent and badly needed piece.
What might kill Biden are the voters who voted him in 2020 just to get Trump out of office and think he has been a complete failure. Plenty of us just won't vote.