Socialism for the rich. I’m less inclined to think that there will be a sudden collapse of white collar jobs and more of the usual: increased productivity for workers who will realize none of the gains, but be simply asked to do more work per hour. In other words fewer jobs will be created while workers are pushed closer and closer to total burnout. The question is will white collar workers have enough and organize against this once and for all?
Labor share of income has been declining for decades as capital share rises. The baseline argument is just that AI will increase this spread, and attack labor's leverage even more than previous technological revolutions.
In a capitalist society the state protects the moneyed (Epstein) class. In a socialist society the state protects its people and nature *against* the exploitative tendencies of the rich and powerful. Which is why socialist leaders are often branded as "aUThoRitaRiaN". I ask, authoritarian towards WHO? towards workers, no. Towards capitalists? yes!
'The rich are asked only to act in their own best interests. In doing so, they are just following capitalism’s incentives, like everyone else. You can’t judge them for that, can you?'
A few years ago I spent a few months in South Africa. When I got there, scheduled electricity blackouts occurred several times a week. There was an app on which you could track planned outages, and the inconvenience was not onerous. Two months later there were three lengthy (3-4 hours) blackouts a day, most days, in the Cape Town area. One was usually while I was sleeping, so fine. During another, I would plan to go out for a long run, and during the third, well, I would make sure I didn't need to cook or shower or otherwise use electricity.
During that period I learned the phrase "regulatory capture", which describes what you're talking about in this post. When industry "captures" the regulators. Think about the Japanese energy cartel, "capturing" the regulators in the run-up to the (avoidable) Fukushima nuclear reactor meltdowns. Think of U.S. energy policy under Trump and pretty much every other Republican president. Think of consumer rights, disappearing under Trump. Think of Michael Bloomberg's failed attempt to ban 2-liter sugary drinks in New York City when he was mayor. Think of all the senior DoD personnel who retire and almost immediately take jobs in the procurement apparatuses of defense contractors. And so on.
The system is broken, and irretrievable. As other commenters have noted, "greed is good", and today one of the primary motivations for pursuing a career in "public service".
I’ve been thinking about the AI question and how it seems like unions are entirely unprepared for its effects on their members as it gets much much more capable. Okay, maybe SAG-AFTRA and WGA are thinking about it.
It might be interesting, Hamilton, for you to do a tour of major unions and talk with them about this question of preparation. Like, what is their alternative to machine-smashing?
There is a wide variety of approaches and threats depending on industry but the unions are thinking about it. I did a panel at Labor Notes 2024 on this exact topic with nurses, longshoremen, writers, and others.
I think the better focus is on greed and corruption. These have been spiraling. It just happens to be in a capitalist system. Aristotle noted that greed is a contagion. We need to build a control system that prevents greed from hijacking the economic system. One thing I would like to see in a system is the re-enforcement of anti-trust laws. Companies have become too big and too powerful, which translates into their leaders being too powerful.
It will take a citizens movement to force the upper class to accept responsibility for their actions and to implement the changes required. For a citizens movement with a plan and macro solution see www.informedcitizens.com
As the capitalists have been saying for decades about burning fossil fuels... if everything gets totally fucked from this, well that's OK because "some" technology will come along to fix it. Well, look at the technology - at their hands - that did come along: AI. Now the assholes are saying - and many really are - that AI will solve ALL of our problems. Including problems it creates, presumably, because it will be smarter than us. Ironic that this is kind of an admission of how actually fucking dumb they are, right now, and they apparently recognize it? There is always an excuse for behaving badly NOW, and that is that LATER it will all be OK. Ya just gotta have Faith In The System, right? The faith that short term plunder will always, eventually, lead to some kind of imagined egalitarian or utopian outcome. Outcome right now vs. a few decades ago? Hmmm, not so good.
It's worth noting that this is also how the capitalists thought of trade liberalization. The "Standard Economic Model of Trade" (a term used by Paul Krugman) assumed that any job losses from NAFTA or others would be made up for by policy or some form of progressive taxation that would fix all the problems without costing too much. This was part of the argument used to sell the trade deals. Exactly what that policy was and how it would be paid for was never spelled out but in the end no such policy was implemented and Youngstown just died.
Now they say the same thing about AI. The scam never changes, neither do the terms they are offering. The only change is which golden calf they are rallying around.
Socialism for the rich. I’m less inclined to think that there will be a sudden collapse of white collar jobs and more of the usual: increased productivity for workers who will realize none of the gains, but be simply asked to do more work per hour. In other words fewer jobs will be created while workers are pushed closer and closer to total burnout. The question is will white collar workers have enough and organize against this once and for all?
What was maybe most illuminating about the Citadel quote was their assertion that “capital”
income would continue to grow even as “wage”
income collapsed. The implication being that big tech would not suffer from AI job loss. How reassuring…..
Labor share of income has been declining for decades as capital share rises. The baseline argument is just that AI will increase this spread, and attack labor's leverage even more than previous technological revolutions.
Another reason unions are more vital than ever.
In a capitalist society the state protects the moneyed (Epstein) class. In a socialist society the state protects its people and nature *against* the exploitative tendencies of the rich and powerful. Which is why socialist leaders are often branded as "aUThoRitaRiaN". I ask, authoritarian towards WHO? towards workers, no. Towards capitalists? yes!
'The rich are asked only to act in their own best interests. In doing so, they are just following capitalism’s incentives, like everyone else. You can’t judge them for that, can you?'
Yup
This post is one of the best of recent times because it requires rethinking various assumptions. Thank you
Fear not – the economic gains will trickle down!
A few years ago I spent a few months in South Africa. When I got there, scheduled electricity blackouts occurred several times a week. There was an app on which you could track planned outages, and the inconvenience was not onerous. Two months later there were three lengthy (3-4 hours) blackouts a day, most days, in the Cape Town area. One was usually while I was sleeping, so fine. During another, I would plan to go out for a long run, and during the third, well, I would make sure I didn't need to cook or shower or otherwise use electricity.
During that period I learned the phrase "regulatory capture", which describes what you're talking about in this post. When industry "captures" the regulators. Think about the Japanese energy cartel, "capturing" the regulators in the run-up to the (avoidable) Fukushima nuclear reactor meltdowns. Think of U.S. energy policy under Trump and pretty much every other Republican president. Think of consumer rights, disappearing under Trump. Think of Michael Bloomberg's failed attempt to ban 2-liter sugary drinks in New York City when he was mayor. Think of all the senior DoD personnel who retire and almost immediately take jobs in the procurement apparatuses of defense contractors. And so on.
The system is broken, and irretrievable. As other commenters have noted, "greed is good", and today one of the primary motivations for pursuing a career in "public service".
I’ve been thinking about the AI question and how it seems like unions are entirely unprepared for its effects on their members as it gets much much more capable. Okay, maybe SAG-AFTRA and WGA are thinking about it.
It might be interesting, Hamilton, for you to do a tour of major unions and talk with them about this question of preparation. Like, what is their alternative to machine-smashing?
There is a wide variety of approaches and threats depending on industry but the unions are thinking about it. I did a panel at Labor Notes 2024 on this exact topic with nurses, longshoremen, writers, and others.
I think the better focus is on greed and corruption. These have been spiraling. It just happens to be in a capitalist system. Aristotle noted that greed is a contagion. We need to build a control system that prevents greed from hijacking the economic system. One thing I would like to see in a system is the re-enforcement of anti-trust laws. Companies have become too big and too powerful, which translates into their leaders being too powerful.
It will take a citizens movement to force the upper class to accept responsibility for their actions and to implement the changes required. For a citizens movement with a plan and macro solution see www.informedcitizens.com
These “let them eat cake” moments tend to lead to certain eventualities.
As the capitalists have been saying for decades about burning fossil fuels... if everything gets totally fucked from this, well that's OK because "some" technology will come along to fix it. Well, look at the technology - at their hands - that did come along: AI. Now the assholes are saying - and many really are - that AI will solve ALL of our problems. Including problems it creates, presumably, because it will be smarter than us. Ironic that this is kind of an admission of how actually fucking dumb they are, right now, and they apparently recognize it? There is always an excuse for behaving badly NOW, and that is that LATER it will all be OK. Ya just gotta have Faith In The System, right? The faith that short term plunder will always, eventually, lead to some kind of imagined egalitarian or utopian outcome. Outcome right now vs. a few decades ago? Hmmm, not so good.
It's worth noting that this is also how the capitalists thought of trade liberalization. The "Standard Economic Model of Trade" (a term used by Paul Krugman) assumed that any job losses from NAFTA or others would be made up for by policy or some form of progressive taxation that would fix all the problems without costing too much. This was part of the argument used to sell the trade deals. Exactly what that policy was and how it would be paid for was never spelled out but in the end no such policy was implemented and Youngstown just died.
Now they say the same thing about AI. The scam never changes, neither do the terms they are offering. The only change is which golden calf they are rallying around.
The contradictions are astounding!
I mean, it seems like everyone forgot who bailed out the capitalist class in 2008. Huh.
The “Me” generation?